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The top 10 housing markets of the future

download (1)The top 10 housing markets of the future

1. Washington

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Bremerton-Silverdale metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 44.7%
Current median price: $245,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $69,900
Population: 240,860

The Bremerton-Silverdale area, on the Puget Sound’s Kitsap Peninsula, has the highest growth forecast of all Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the country, with prices expected to jump 44.7% by 2014, according to Fiserv. Cathy Doney, general manger for Reid Real Estate in Silverdale, says the waterfront community has benefited from government employment, which has helped sustain the job market and attracted buyers looking to live close to Seattle at a lower cost. Washington’s second-strongest market is Tacoma, with a growth rate expected to be 33.1%. Prices in the Seattle area are expecte

2. Oregon

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Bend metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 33.6%
Current median price: $144,533*
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q1
Median family income: $58,200
Population: 158,630

The area around Bend, in central Oregon’s high desert by the Cascade Mountains, has the second-highest four-year growth forecast, 33.6%, after Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. Bend draws homebuyers and visitors with its wealth of outdoor recreational opportunities, but its prices have dropped about 40% since hitting a peak in late 2006. Fiserv and Moody’s now expect a rapid recovery starting next year.

Greg Broderick, a real-estate broker in Bend, says prices have overcorrected and buyers are seeing good value in the market. Homes priced the low hundred-thousand-dollar range “are being snapped up at a furious pace,” he says. Still, the area must deal with a higher-than-average unemployment rate, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics says was 13.4% in June.

3. Michigan

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 33.1%
Current median price: $51,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q2
Median family income: $54,400
Population: 1.92 million

Since reaching a peak in 2006, home prices in the Detroit area have fallen 60.5%, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. As homes have become more affordable — the median home price in Detroit is lower than the median family income — demand is expected to pick up. Prices are forecast to jump 33.1% over the next four years. George Moma, a broker with Century 21 Dupont Realtors, says the growing prevalence of short sales over foreclosures will help drive up the median price in the Detroit metro area. He adds that the area is attracting interest among international investors from the U.K., Dubai, Russia, India, Ireland and France.

4. California

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Napa metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 31.7%
Current median price: $355,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q4
Median family income: $79,600
Population: 134,650

Prices in the Napa area have dropped an enormous 44.6% since peaking in early 2006, according to first-quarter 2010 data from Fiserv and Moody’s Despite the drop, home prices are expected to rebound quickly. According to an article in the St. Helena Star, Napa County is vulnerable to economic and real-estate market fluctuations, but the impact is mitigated by managed growth and the county’s natural and agricultural resources. The unemployment rate in the Napa area fell to 9.3% in June, from 11.1% in January, according to the BLS.

5. Nevada

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Carson City metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 31.6%
Current median price: $141,524*
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q2
Median family income: $63,100
Population: 55,180

By the second quarter of 2011, prices in the Carson City area are expected to have fallen 34.4% from peak levels, according to Fiserv and Moody’s Recovery will depend on job creation, as the unemployment rate was 13.4% in June, according to the BLS. While expectations for near-term economic growth have diminished recently and competition for jobs is extremely high, opportunities exist, even in a declining labor market, according to Nevada’s Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department.

6. Florida

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 26.9%
Current median price: $158,669*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q3
Median family income: $53,800
Population: 164,770

Home prices in the Panama City area fell about 27% after hitting a peak in 2006, according to the House Price Index. Jennifer Mackay, an agent at Keller Williams Success Realty in Panama City, says the market was stabilizing earlier this year, but the BP oil spill led some buyers to pull out and sent the rental market into a tailspin. Despite the area’s large number of foreclosures (1.93% in the first half, according to RealtyTrac), Mackay says the new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, which opened in May, should help stimulate local business. “I see our economy doing better than others over the course of the next year,” she says. The area’s unemployment rate reached 12.1% in January and dropped to 9.3% in June, according to BLS data.

7. Arizona

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Flagstaff metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 26%
Current median price: $278,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q3
Median family income: $56,700
Population: 129,850

Although Arizona has been one of the states hit hardest by the housing downturn, sales activity in the Flagstaff area, home to Northern Arizona University and Flagstaff Medical Center, has picked up since the start of the year, due in part to the homebuyer tax credit. Flagstaff-based broker Ann Heitland says prices still may drop in the near term, but the decrease will be limited by shrinking inventory, as there has been a lack of new construction in the area. She adds that because more than one-fifth of the Flagstaff market is second homes, demand from second-home buyers from Phoenix will also affect the recovery.

8. New Mexico

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Santa Fe metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 25.8%
Current median price: $197,601*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q3
Median family income: $64,300
Population: 147,530

Fiserv and Moody’s expect prices in Santa Fe to drop 13.4% from their height in 2007. Lois Sury, president of the Santa Fe Association of Realtors, says in a release that median prices fell during the second quarter, but that homes are moving across all price ranges. Sales in the city and county of Santa Fe rose 40% during the second quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to the association.

9. Wyoming

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Cheyenne metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 23.7%
Current median price: $106,602*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $62,600
Population: 88,850

The Cheyenne metro area, which includes Laramie County, has been a fairly stable market, with home prices estimated to drop only 2.6% from peak to trough. Home prices increased in June, and the average time on the market decreased, according to the Cheyenne Board of Realtors. The metro area had a 7% unemployment rate in June, according to the BLS.

10. Alaska

Biggest home-price increase projected in 2014: Anchorage metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 20%
Current median price: $177,699*
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $77,700
Population: 374,550

The housing market in Anchorage has been stable: The estimated peak-to-trough price drop was only 2.1%, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. Home sales, aided by the first-time homebuyers tax credit earlier this year, as well as the fact that the area is home to many people who work in the resilient energy sector, are projected to stay strong as buyers take advantage of lower prices and low mortgage rates. According to, “The state is seeing few foreclosures and is already showing signs of recovering.”

Source –

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